Future of energy is modern renewable energy – solar and wind.
Renewable energy is fast growing in electricity sector. Renewable power capacity grew by over 300 GW in 2022 (mostly solar PV), the largest increase ever, raising the renewables share in power capacity to about 28%. Now, at least, 32 countries have renewable energy capacity of at least 10 GW each.
However, renewable energy has been slow to gain prominence in cooling and heating industries and especially in transport industry, which remain the domain of the fossil fuels. These industries account for around 80% of total energy consumption, compared to 20% energy represented by electricity.
Progress in developing renewable energy has been achieved thanks to effective government policies. This is where the three industries differ significantly.
Renewable energy will take over coal in global electricity mix by 2027!
Currently at 28% of total electricity⚡generation (GWh), renewables ☘ (solar☀️, wind 💨 hydropower💧) is forecast by IEA (in its 2022 Renewables report on analysis and forecast to 2027) to reach 38% share by 2027, exceeding declining coal share of around 30%. Statista has also summarized this forecast in a an infographic with useful commentary.
Even more exciting is the forecast for solar generation capacity to almost triple to over 2,350 GW by 2027, surpassing hydropower in 2024, natural gas in 2026 and coal in 2027, to become the largest installed electricity capacity worldwide.
Overall fossilfuels🔥(coal, natural gas and oil) will continue to dominate electricity mix.
Government policies, incentives, strategic concerns about energy security and independence, and declining costs are the key drivers for increasing renewable energy. However, intermittency and despatchability remain the concerns about solar and wind. It is therefore not surprising that hydropower will remain the primary source of renewable electricity generation by 2027 even though its capacity expands less than that of wind and solar PV.
There are some key challenges to adoption of solar and wind:
- Rising commodity, energy and shipping prices have increased the cost of producing and transporting solar PV modules, wind turbines and biofuels worldwide.
- Advanced economies are seeing challenges to permitting and grid integration, whereas emerging and developing economies face stop-and-go policies, lack of grid availability and off-takers’ financial health risks. Policy support for flexibility are an issue in all countries. Social acceptance of wind and hydropower projects remains a challenge.
- There is a need for speed: Renewable capacity must grow 80% faster if the world is to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. This means average annual additions of solar PV and wind would need to almost double.
