The Surprising Findings from BloombergNEF’s 2023 Electric Vehicle Outlook

The transport sector has been one of the main contributors to the increasing levels of greenhouse gas emissions, making the shift to cleaner and more sustainable mobility a priority for global stakeholders. The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has been a promising prospect in the transportation sector. BloombergNEF (BNEF) recently released its 2023 Electric Vehicle Outlook, which presents an optimistic outlook for the future of EVs. As expected, the report shows that EV sales are going up and up, but some of the findings from the report are more surprising than others. In this blog post, we will delve into some of the unexpected findings from BNEF’s 2023 Electric Vehicle Outlook.

Internal combustion passenger vehicle sales will decline: BNEF predicts that sales of internal combustion passenger vehicles will decline by 19% compared to their peak in 2017, due to the growing demand for electric vehicles and the increased availability of charging infrastructure. In other words, consumers are actively choosing to buy EVs over traditional petrol and diesel vehicles. This decline in sales signifies a major shift in the transportation sector.

The cost of EV batteries will continue to drop: EV battery prices have fallen significantly in recent years, and BNEF predicts that the cost of EV batteries will continue to decline. This is good news for consumers who have been hesitant to buy EVs due to the high cost of batteries. As battery prices drop, the price of EVs should become more affordable, making them more accessible to a wider demographic of consumers.

EV sales will reach 50% of global passenger vehicle sales by 2035: BNEF forecasts that by 2035, electric vehicles will account for 50% of new passenger vehicle sales worldwide. This projection is primarily driven by the declining cost of batteries, increasing government support, and the rise of new EV models from automakers.

Charging infrastructure will be key to EV adoption: Charging infrastructure will be critical to expanding the adoption of electric vehicles. BNEF expects that charging infrastructure deployment will follow the growth of EV adoption, and by 2030, charging infrastructure will become a $500 billion-plus industry. Investment in charging infrastructure is necessary to help consumers overcome range anxiety and make EVs more appealing to the mass market.

Public transportation will electrify more rapidly than passenger vehicles: The electrification of public transportation is crucial to mitigating emissions in the transportation sector, and BNEF predicts that electric buses and e-rickshaws will have a faster adoption rate than passenger EVs in the coming years. As cities become more congested, public transportation will play a vital role in sustainable mobility solutions, and the electrification of public transportation will be an essential part of this transition.

BNEF’s 2023 Electric Vehicle Outlook shows that the future of the transportation sector is electric. The report’s optimistic projections indicate that the transition to cleaner mobility solutions is not only possible but also economically viable. EVs have the potential to revolutionize the transportation sector and pave the way for a more sustainable and equitable future. To achieve this, stakeholders must continue to invest in charging infrastructure, battery technology, and policy support. The shift to EVs presents a significant opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat climate change.