What the Record Number of Sunspots Mean for Space Weather
The sun has been making headlines lately due to a record-breaking number of sunspots, with over 160 popping up in June alone. This is the highest monthly number in over two decades and has led to concerns about severe space weather events in the future. In this blog post, we’ll take a closer look at what sunspots are, why this increase is significant, and what it means for us here on Earth.
So, what exactly are sunspots? These are temporary dark spots on the sun’s surface that occur due to intense magnetic activity. They can vary in size and shape, but usually appear as a darker area surrounded by a brighter region. Sunspots are closely related to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are also products of intense magnetic activity on the sun’s surface. While these phenomena are intriguing, they can also affect Earth’s climate, satellite communications, GPS systems, and power grids.
“Highest monthly average sunspot number since September 2002!” solar physicist Keith Strong shared on Twitter on Sunday. “The June 2023 [sunspot number] was 163.4, the highest value for over 20 years.”
The increase in sunspot activity is noteworthy because it indicates that the current solar cycle, known as Cycle 25, is more intense than previously predicted. NASA and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had estimated that the maximum monthly sunspot number during this cycle would be around 125. However, the actual number is proving to be higher, with predictions indicating that it could reach almost 200 in the coming year. This unexpected increase has led scientists to be concerned about space weather events, including solar flares and CMEs.
HIGHEST MONTHLY AVERAGED SUNSPOT NUMBER SINCE SEPTEMBER 2002! The June 2023 SNN was 163.4 the highest value for over 20 years. The CM model is now forecasting a peak for SC25 of just under 200, the CM model at 125 (SC42 was 116). Any Grand Solar Minimum believers left out there? pic.twitter.com/uw0JCeooe1
— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) July 1, 2023
The effects of severe space weather on Earth can be significant. Solar flares and CMEs release charged particles that can interact with Earth’s magnetic field, causing geomagnetic storms. These storms can result in power outages, communication disruptions, and potential damage to satellites in orbit. In 1989, for example, a powerful geomagnetic storm caused a power outage affecting 6 million people in Quebec, Canada. While the probability of such an event occurring again is relatively low, it’s important to be prepared for such eventualities.
The severity of the current solar cycle remains a subject of continued research. Although some experts are predicting that the peak of Cycle 25 could occur in the next few years, others believe it could be years down the line. Additionally, not all sunspots are created equal. Some produce little more than a magnetic flux rope, while others lead to CMEs that could impact Earth’s atmosphere. The frequency and type of sunspot activity will continue to be monitored closely by space agencies worldwide.
Sunspots may seem inconsequential at first, but their impact on space weather (and by extension, our daily lives) cannot be overstated. The recent increase in sunspot activity is significant because it points to a more intense solar cycle than previously predicted. While it’s still unclear exactly what the effects of this cycle will be, there’s no harm in being prepared for potential disruptions. Whether you’re an avid skywatcher or not, the sun and its activities affect us all in more ways than we realize.