I want to go on-record regarding my prediction for the US EV market.
Many of you have emailed and DM’d about this topic. I’ll post it here and invite you to re-respond with your observations and disagreements publicly 🙂
1. EVs are the long-term.
2. This year, we’re going to see headlines say EVs are failing (they aren’t).
3. Concurrently, we’re going to see a brief renaissance in public opinion of gas-cars, lasting 9-12 months — (the pendulum temporarily swinging the other way).
4. Then, there will be a final, slow, quiet, and looong transition off gas cars. This will be the “new normal” for EV cars and ICE cars will see a collapse in resale value. This will be very tough for the market that serves them.
When the rapid beginning of the “S-curve” of adoption will begin?
*(aka, when will EV sales explode in a noticeable way)*
This will occur when the “average Joe” looks down his cul-de-sac and sees 2-3 neighbors he didn’t expect to have to an EV, to have one parked in their driveway. Right now, it’s still in the “early adopter” sales phase, and the transition to mainstream will have a gap — which we are about to experience.
Will there be a false failure?
Yes. In the next few weeks, Fox News will start running articles declaring EVs a “failure” in the marketplace. They will cite sources showing an “over” supply at dealerships inventory and “forced” price cuts.
What will happen for the rest of this year?
– Brand-new EV models reaching dealerships for ALL major automakers
– Dealership inventories will increase
– Incentives and discounts will increase
– Used ICE (gas car) trade-in values will be temporarily buoyed
Will this be a good buying opportunity?
Yes. Especially if you have an ICE (gas car) to trade-in, this year will be the optimal year to capture personal tax credits, get a low EV purchase price, and get the highest price for your current gas car.
What factors do you think will most impact the pace of EV adoption?
Here are some of the more interesting comments to the post…
Rob Kischuk, CEO & Founder at Bellwood Labs
Indeed. I am all aboard the EV train, but the industry pretending that slopping around a few Level 2 chargers here and there is going to move the needle… it’s not nearly enough. It seems like a LONG road to get to the place where 800v charging on NACS connectors is something normal people can rely on. (Or that some cluster of solid-state batteries and charging reaches mass-market before then).