According to a recent BloombergNEF article, global Electric Vehicle (EV) sales are expected to surpass 14 million units in 2023, showing a significant 35% increase compared to the previous year. This growth is primarily driven by China’s dynamic market, where EVs have accounted for more than 30% of passenger car sales in recent months.
Europe’s electric vehicle (EV) market is displaying unexpected resilience, with an estimated sales growth close to 20% this year, totaling around 3.3 million units. Despite trailing, the United States has surpassed the significant milestone of 1 million EV sales for the first time and foresees a growth of over 40% starting in 2022.
The forecast predicts Tesla’s Model Y to become the world’s top-selling vehicle, contributing to Tesla and BYD’s combined 6% share of the global vehicle market. Encouragingly, the industry has a positive outlook regarding charging infrastructure, as a record-breaking 1.4 million new public charging points are scheduled to be installed by 2023.
Moreover, battery technology is advancing, and prices are expected to continue their downward trend after a temporary increase. Significant progress is being made in new battery chemistries, such as solid-state and sodium-ion batteries.
A recent analysis reveals that the American market is facing uncertainty amidst various challenges. These challenges include the electrification of large pickup trucks, political polarization surrounding electric vehicles (EVs), and prevailing macroeconomic conditions. As a result, both consumers and manufacturers are adopting a more cautious approach. Notably, EV inventories are on the rise, and leading automakers like Ford and General Motors have made adjustments to their EV targets.
BloombergNEF has raised concerns about the readiness of the US market to widely embrace EVs, pointing out differences in policy and consumer adoption compared to goods like household appliances. The unique dynamics of the automotive industry, where EVs constitute a significant portion of new sales but remain a small fraction of the overall vehicle population, further compound the challenges.
Despite these obstacles, global EV adoption forecasts have been revised upward in recent years. Analysts highlight that the coming years will be pivotal in determining if the most optimistic projections need adjustment, especially considering the potential slowdown in the US market.